Uusinta tietoa ilmastonmuutoksesta. Sopeutuminen. Metsä Seppo Kellomäki. Itä Suomen yliopisto, metsätieteiden osasto - PDF

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Uusinta tietoa ilmastonmuutoksesta Sopeutuminen Metsä Seppo Kellomäki Itä Suomen yliopisto, metsätieteiden osasto Sopeutuminen Climate change in Europe : temperature and precipitation IPCC 2007 Sectors

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Uusinta tietoa ilmastonmuutoksesta Sopeutuminen Metsä Seppo Kellomäki Itä Suomen yliopisto, metsätieteiden osasto Sopeutuminen Climate change in Europe : temperature and precipitation IPCC 2007 Sectors and systems Impact Climate change impacts through Europe 1 Area North Atlantic Central Mediter r. East Water resources Mountains, cryosphere Floods Water availability Water stress Glaciers retreat Duration of snow cover Permafrost retreat na Tree line upward shift Forest, shrub lands and grasslands Forest NPP to Northward/inland shift of tree species to Stability of forest ecosystems Shrub lands NPP Natural disturbances (e.g., fire, pests, wind) Grasslands NPP to IPCC 2007 Sectors and systems Wetlands and aquatic ecosystems Biodiversity Impact Climate change impacts through Europe 2 Area North Atlantic Central Mediterr. East Drying/ transformation of wetlands Species diversity to?? Eutrophication Disturbance of drained peatlands na Plants (Mt) Amphibians Reptiles (SW) (SE) (SW) (SE) Marine mammals?? na?? Low-lying coastal birds na?? Freshwater biodiversity to?????? IPCC 2007 Vaikutukset ja haavoittuvuus: mallilaskelmia Management Temperature conditions Measurements of climate parameters Moisture conditions Climate scenarios Monthly statistics of temperature and precipitation Multipliers Degree-day, dry days, availability of light and nitrogen Decomposition of litter, humus and dead trees Tree population Species composition, age and size distribution, growth rate of different species Potential growth of different tree Carbon dioxide concentration in the atmosphere Regeneration Mortality Vaikutukset ja haavoittuvuus: puiden käytössä oleva vesi voi vähentyä lisääntyvän haihdunnan vuoksi, vaikka sadan lisääntyisikin OMT MT Current climate Changing climate Dry days (days/year) VT CT Temperature sum (dd) Source: Kellomäki et al. 2008) Vaikutukset ja haavoittuvuus: kasvu lisääntyy erityise Pohjois Suomessa mutta voi paikallisesti vähentyä Etelä S Growth of forests currently and different time slices under the climate change divided between southern and northern Finland. Note that the growth represents only the upland sites on mineral soils excluding peatlands. Northern Finland includes the forests above 62 o N and southern Finland below 62 o N. Region Growth, m 3 /ha/yr (change, %) Current Southern Finland (7) 6.3(11) 6.8(12) Northern Finland (18) 3.7(68) 4.6(109) Total (10) 5.3(29) 5.9(44) Cutting removals currently and under the climate change. Note that the cutting removals represent only the upland sites on mineral soils excluding peatlands. Northern Finland includes the forests above 62 o N and southern Finland below 62 o N. Source: Kellomäki et al Region Cutting removals, m 3 /ha/yr (change, %) Current Southern Finland (3) 4.2(31) 5.0(56) Northern Finland (9) 2.2(100) 3.0(168) Total (4) 3.3(52) 5.9(82) Vaikutukset ja haavoittuvuus: abioottisia ja bioottisia riskejä Ilmastonmuutos vaikuttaa abioottisten ja bioottisten tuhojen esiintymiseen Abiootisilla ja bioottisilla tuhoilla on vuorovaikutusta Vaikutukset ja haavoittuvuus: metsäpalon riski vähenee aluksi mutta kasvaa vuosisadan loppua kohti Source: Kilpeläinen et al. 2009 Vaikutukset ja haavoittuvuus: lumituhon riski kasvaa aluksi mutta vähenee vuosisadan loppua kohti Vaikutukset ja haavoittuvuus: tuulituhon vähenee vuosisadan loppua kohti? Vaikutukset ja haavoittuvuus: Lumipeitteen ohentuminen lisää aluksi maan keskimääräistä routaantumista mutta vuosisadan loppua kohti routaantuminen vähenee erityisesti Etelä Suomessa Sopeutuminen ja sopeuttava metsänhoito Adaptive management refers to the management, which aims at moderating or offsetting the potential damage or taking advantage of opportunities created by a given climate change. Adaptation occurs through adjusting and modifying the management to meet the requirements to moderate or offset the potential damage or to take advantage of opportunities created by a given climate change. Adaptive management is a strategy to make the structure and the consequent functioning of the forest ecosystem to resist harmful impacts of climate change, and to utilise the opportunities created by climate change. Adaptive management socio economic framework Climate Change Properties of Tree Populations and Sites Assessment of Biological Impacts Vulnerability of Forest Ecosystems Optimissation of Management Operations and Choice of Adaptive Actions Properties of Forest Regions Management Objectives Adaptive Management Strategies Forest Policy Socio-economic Conditions and Implications Agreed Amount of Tangible and Intangible services Can we do something in management to adapt forests to the climate change? Case of Norway spruce with more southern provenance Left: Growth of Norway spruce may reduce under the climate change in the southern boreal conditions. This may be due to suboptimal temperature conditions and more frequent drought episodes even on fertile sites with high water holding capacity Right: More southern provenance of Norway spruce may be more successful under the climate change (right) Can we do something in management to adapt forests to the climate change? Case to reduce rotation length, change tree species composition and ecotype of Norway spruce Sopeutuminen Current actions (up 2050) Management planning Include climate variables in growth and yield models in order to have more specific predictions on the future development of forests Include the risk management into the management rules and forest plans Gene management Make choice about the preferred tree species composition for the future Identify more suitable genotypes Launch breeding programmes to enhance the resistance of trees to biotic damage Forest protection Revise the rules for importing fresh timber, to reduce the risk of introducing alien species Silvicultural management Revise management rules to consider the climate variability on regeneration, growth and mortality Prefer natural regeneration wherever appropriate Technology and infrastructure Develop technology to use altered wood quality and tree species composition Develop the infrastructure for timber harvest and transportation, and non timber use of forests Future (2050 onwards) Management planning Plan the forest landscape (as mosaic of forest stands) to resist high winds Plan forest landscape to minimise spread of insects and diseases Gene management Plant alternative genotype or new species Modify seed transfer zones Forest protection Revise management rules to enhance the resistance of forest to abiotic and biotic damage Silvicultural management Develop soil management to reduce the influence of the ground cover on the success of regeneration and enhance the supply of nitrogen Modify the management rules to meet the enhancing growth and turn over of carbon Change rotation length to meet the enhanced turnover of carbon Technology and infrastructure Develop technology to use altered wood quality and tree species composition Develop the infrastructure for timber harvest and transportation, and non timber use of forests Conclusions Climate change provides opportunities, e.g. Higher productivity, especially in the north, with more timber More carbon sequestration Climate change increases risks, e.g. Higher risks of abiotic (fire, wind, snow) and biotic damages Disappearing of unique ecosystems, especially in the south and north Reduction of productivity of forest ecosystems, especially in the south Alteration of forest habitats and alteration of the current patterns of biodiversity, with disappearing currently rare and/or endangered species Climate change requires to modify management, e.g. Maintain the productivity of forest land, e.g. prefer drought tolerant species and provenances Prefer management rules reducing the interception of water in tree crowns and evaporation etc. Adaptation in forestry needs long term strategies, i.e. measures applicable in early parts of this century may not be valid later this century
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