The Security Risk of Refugees in Europe. Ivica Zvonko Miljak, Marko Šukilović, Eduard Štor, Axel Petri - PDF

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The Security Risk of Refugees in Europe Ivica Zvonko Miljak, Marko Šukilović, Eduard Štor, Axel Petri Facts Many people EU not ready (inertia, (not) co-ordination) Problems of acceptance and transfer

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The Security Risk of Refugees in Europe Ivica Zvonko Miljak, Marko Šukilović, Eduard Štor, Axel Petri Facts Many people EU not ready (inertia, (not) co-ordination) Problems of acceptance and transfer border Policy Frontex Illegal crossings Documents Children Reactions residents Terrorists sleepers Who is Who Refugees Asylum seekers Migrants Economic migration Criminals Terrorists The Security Risk of Refugees in Europe Marko Šukilović, CPP Balkan s 5/10 good or bad?! Geopolitical impacts on Serbia Economy ( no reason to stay ) Money making machine: weapons 40 pieces of firearms,6 kilograms of explosives and 11 hand grenades were seized during 48hrs of regional police operation in Balkans, engaging police officers (Interpol, April ) The primary goal of this operation, like number of similar others, is to prevent weapons smuggling from the Balkans to Western EU countries, as the shopping list contains all items for lethal terrorist attack Out of 1000 Balkan countries citizen (mainly from Bosnia, Kosovo, Albania and Macedonia) who went for Jihad to Iraq and Syria over the past couple of years, approximately 300 returned back to the region and pose security risk as their motives for returning are not always and fully clear Money making machine: Smuggling Europol estimated that 90% per cent of migrants entering the EU are managed by the smugglers and sometimes with the help of corrupt officials paid to allow the trucks, ships and people to cross the borders According to international law enforcement agencies, the smuggling networks earn nearly six billion dollars annually, whereas the average cost per person smuggled ranges from do dollars Security Issues terrorists One of the Paris gunmen (leaving 129+ dead) Entered Greece on October 3 rd Entered Serbia on October 7 th, requested asylum, but continued to Croatia / Austria before his appeal was reviewed on Friday 13 November Gunmen and bombers attacked restaurants, the Bataclan theatre and the Stade de France national stadium Transportation issues As hundreds of thousands of cargo trucks operate along the migrant routes, they are number one choice for a free ride, causing great damage to logistics companies Number of traffic accidents reported on Serbian roads, mainly involving lorries and vans flipping with migrants on board Drugs, weapons and human became cargo features Community safety issues Proven routes with high success rate for transfer from Serbia to Austria cost dollars and dollars to Germany, but for those out of money there is another option on the menu a guided dollar trip to porous points of the 3 meter security fence on Serbian/Hungarian border 35 migrants from Middle East were transported from Macedonian border to Belgrade, but then became prisoners for 5 days without food and access to clean water, heating and hygiene conditions - simply because they run out of money and refused to pay more than agreed Neighbor Issues After separating its own policy on migrants from the official EU, Hungary built a 3m high security fence along the border with Serbia, deployed multiple indepth measures including drones, ATVs, thermal imaging cameras, dogs and combined military-police patrols and almost sealed the border, arresting approximately 1000 people within the first 12 hours of new border policy High number of violent incidents occured, including assaults on TV crews As a result, 90% of migrants today uses the Croatia route where few cases of violence occurred before Croatia and Serbia managed to agree unified approach with EU Main concern of Serbia: What if they are stuck & blocked? Remark: Project GRIFFIN logo and slogan used only out of author s pure desire that Serbia and other transition countries should initiate massive security awareness and preparedness programs like GRIFFIN, as today there is NONE The Security Risk of Refugees in Europe The Security Risk of Refugees in Croatia Eduard Stor This presentation is only representing personal opinions of the author Beginning of Western Balkan route Croatian government politics Politics: Let Migrants in Croatia Help sick and powerless Transfer them to Hungarian or Slovenia border According to official data of Ministry of Interior of the start of the migrant crisis to March 4, 2016 entered Croatia 658,068 migrants, of which 558,724 in Almost all have left our country on its way to Western Europe, while in Croatia applied for asylum only 39 refugees. Reception Center Aarrival intensity Sometimes it is almost than people in a day Food and cloth Medical care Registration Transportation Translator In Croatia live 3,8 million people Identity check problems People without documents People with faked documents Impossibility to check documents in country where people coming from People who try to skip checking procedure People who come in Country crossing green border Croatian financial data Croatia spend for migrants: 22 million USD From Eu get 10,4 milion USD The European Union Conclusions Restrictions on the admission of refugees and migrants. Caused a domino effect on the Balkan route The criteria are tightened Slovenia, Croatia, Serbia and Macedonia. People who did not escape from the war-affected areas have already been set out in the EU in search of work, no longer pass across borders.. The Security Risk of Refugees in Europe The German Discussion about increasing terrorist threats Axel Petri Lawyer, Security and Management Consultant* * This presentation is only representing personal opinions of the author. Summer 2015: Wir schaffen das! We can do it! What are the reasons behind? Picture: Bundesregierung/Schacht https://www.bundeskanzlerin.de/content/de/fotoreihe/2015/ kanzlerin-im-bild/01.jpg Germans affected themselves 0,3 Mio. Jewish People after 1933* 14 Mio. Displaced Persons after WW II** **http://digicoll.library.wisc.edu/cgi-bin/frus/frusidx?type=turn&entity=frus.frus1945berlinv01.p0881&isize=m CC BY-SA 3.0, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid= *Bundeszentrale für Politische Bildung https://www.bpb.de/geschichte/nationalsozialismus/gerettete-geschichten/177609/exillaender-juedischer-fluechtlinge-aus-dem-deutschen-reich Germany has experience Refugees Applications for Asylum in Germany*: : 4,6 Mio., thereof : 0,9 Mio : 3,7 Mio. Q1/2 2016: 0,4 Mio. *Source: Bundesamt für Migration und Flüchtlinge (BAMF), Aktuelle Zahlen zu Asyl, June 2016 Welcome Culture August 2015 flowers at stations and more The Tradeoff: Limited Registration Vast majority arriving autumn 2015 in Bavaria distribution within Germany necessary not all of them registered by name and checked before continuing travel prevent bottleneck at german borders suspension of case-by-case review for some countries (including Dublin-rules ) Uncertainty of registration people waiting for asylum application people not using official transportation people with incomplete documents people with faked documents people without case-by-case review/interviews July 2016: Registration completed Lessons learned establishing of Integrated Identitymanagement - Since February 2016 all new arriving asylum seekers are registered upon their first contact with german authorities - Identity checked and data exchange between authorities Backlogs of applications covered - All migrants are registered right now (fingerprint, picture, data) - decision of open asylum procedures until end of year 01/16: Restart of case-by-case-review including interviews for Syria, Irak, Afghanistan and Eritrea Remaining uncertainties people not applying for asylum people with incomplete documents people with faked documents Internal Security endangered? Paris 11/13/2015: attackers have been registered several times (as a kind of demonstration) Mob sex attacks and muggings on New Year's Eve 2015 in Cologne by refugee perpetrators Würzburg 07/18/2016: registered unaccompanied minor refugee attacking due to lack of drivers licence - passengers of regional train with knife and ax (steered by IS/Daesh?) Ansbach 07/24/2016: Syrian perpetrator whose deportation to Bulgaria had been announced 11 days before conducts first IS-suicide-bombing in Germany (steered by IS/Daesh?) Rise of right-wing parties (international phenomenon) Rise of right wing terrorism Europol: EU Terrorism Situation and Trend Report (TE-SAT) 2016 Irregular migration There is no concrete evidence to date that terrorist travelers systematically use the flow of refugees to enter Europe unnoticed. However, some incidents have been identified involving terrorists who have made use of migratory flows to enter the EU. In the investigations into the 13 November Paris attacks, it was found that two of the attackers had entered the EU through Greece as part of the large influx of refugees from Syria. A number of other suspected cases, including terrorist use of fraudulent travelling documents, have since been identified. A real and imminent danger, and one that will probably continue to exist for a long time, is the potential for elements of the (Sunni Muslim) Syrian refugee diaspora to become vulnerable to radicalization once in Europe, and to be specifically targeted by Islamist extremist recruiters. Political challenges Terrorism isn t mainly a refugee topic. Most perpetrators of terrorist attacks have been born and growing up in Europe. IS/Daesh does not rely on human traffickers but uses it mainly for propaganda purposes. Additionally IS/Daesh aims at radicalization of refugees and tries to steer them. Statistical likelihood that beyond one million refugees there are criminals, terrorists etc. is not surprising. Nevertheless the exceptional leave to remain of a proven criminal asylum seeker may not be the normal case (otherwise the acceptance of liberal asylum regulation will decrease). Of course border controls have to be effective and probably strengthened (France/Germany will put biometrics, European exercises, information exchange etc. on agenda of summit of EU heads of state on Sept. 16 in Bratislava) Refugee topic has to be tackled on international level. Existing rules have to be re-enforced / adopted. Challenges for the Industry Industry is crucial for a succesful integration Offering of services / information Offering of personell Offering of jobs Security challenges have to be tackled, eg Easy service offerings vs. customer identification Broad job offers vs. lack of security clearance Pilot Project German Ministry of Defense? training for 100 Syrian migrants for civilian roles in the areas of technology, medicine, and logistics Cultural challenges It s an illusion to think that one can completely know, who is really here, what everybody has encountered and is doing in the future. Germany and Merkel as a role model? Yes, mistakes have been made. Yes, criminals and people with anti-democratic convictions came in. Yes, bad things have happened. No, there is no significant increase of crime rates due to the refugees in Germany. No, the constitutional right of asylum is not limited to people who can contribute immediately to a prospering business. It s all about people and about integration. A good integration policy is always also a good security policy! Cultural challenges Food for Thought: Welcome Culture helps, not to mix up the fight against IS/Daesh with a fight against Islam (and therefore blocking integration)? Robert Verkaik: The key to beating terrorism is winning the hearts and minds of Muslims living in the communities that are vulnerable to radicalisation by hate preachers and terror groups like Islamic State and al-qaeda. Tobias Jochheim: Terrorism is only as strong as our fear of it. And if Germany being shocked tries to put security above everything, it is digging its own grave. We must not lose proportionality as every exaggerated security law or measure is limiting individual freedom and undermining peoples trust in state and the entire society.
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