Effective data collection, analysis and utilization in improving strategic planning. Lars Liabø, Kontali Analyse - PDF

Effective data collection, analysis and utilization in improving strategic planning Lars Liabø, Kontali Analyse MED AQUA CEO Event Thursday, December,13th Electra Palace Hotel, Atens Aquaculture vs Fishery

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Effective data collection, analysis and utilization in improving strategic planning Lars Liabø, Kontali Analyse MED AQUA CEO Event Thursday, December,13th Electra Palace Hotel, Atens Aquaculture vs Fishery Fishery: You do not know the catch of tomorrow Aquaculture: You can plan to harvest what the market asks for All well developed industries need reliable macro information about capacities, future production estimates, cost of production, market prices and market development What are the key productivity factors? Feed conversion rates Mortality/escape rates Growth rates Yield, per 100 eggs, per 100 juveniles, per 100 smolts? Fish-farming is a complicated biological process! Salmon farming Norway 1990/91 Strong production growth High mortality Antidumping complains from EU and US Low market prices The industry collapsed, several companies went bankrupt Bad prognosis! 1992 The salmon farming industry had low confidence among banks and investors Major players, feed producers and some banks asked for a system that could supply estimates for future harvest quantities Kontali was asked to establish a reliable system We developed a production simulation model for Norway Challenges How to get necessary input data for the model? Could we rely on the data we received from different sources? Not all farmers cooperated The rule: You spend 20 % of your time to get 80 % of the truth. But how to know that you lack 20% when you do not know the total? Key word: Crosscheching! - Ova inlay Data on - harvest -feed sales -Sale vaccines - harvest weights - Exports - Imports - Biomass - Feed demand - Biological efficiency Yield Loss Feed conversion rates - Smolt release - Feed consumption - Yield - Losses - Temperatures - Growth rates - Health / Diseases PRODUCTION MODELS For each country Actual Harvest Harvest Estimates Evaluation of reports / signals from the industry Historical tendencies Why success? Hard work! Humble attitude Systematic work, focus on main factors Clair definitions for all factors, very important! Only a few data needed from the producers! Monthly Biomass development estimates, number of fish and average weight Accurate prognoses! Industry confidence Independence of all parties, producers, importers, retailers, organizations, governments, banks, investors Why success: Outside supporters: The banks and investors Most of the farming companies Feed producers Vaccine producers The Fish Farmers Association The Department of Fisheries and Coastal Affairs We always listen very carefully to the companies need Estimates from the production simulation model vs harvest estimates from the companies Companies often overestimate their future production! To add company estimates to get the total, can give a correct answer, but not always! The simulation model need input data every month and adjustments can be made for actual feed consumption, harvest, mortality etc. The major players have to trust the figures Rest of the Salmon world: 1996 UK 1996 Faroe Islands 2000 Canada 2001 Chile, Atl. Salmon, trout, coho Model accuracy the last ten years, total world wide estimates: Forecast 12 months ahead versus actual harvest, deviation not bigger than +-3 %. Next step: Building a market model: - Exports - Imports - Domestic consumption - Distribution between the markets Supply to the markets PRODUCTION MODELS Harvest Estimates MARKET SUPPLY MODELS Actual Supply to markets Estimates The principle: - Tendencies in data Evaluations / Analysis: The history repeats itself - Trends / Signals - Expectations - Distribution - Economic indicators from market contacts - Price trends - Trade politics - Demand Access to data from the models All main players have regular access to data from the models, tailor-made reports, top management workshops Feed producers Banks and investors Vaccine producers Equipment producers Key word: Tailor-made reports Seabass/Sebream October 2006 first issue The Kontali Seabass and Seabream Monthly report No detailed biomass estimates/production prognoses included in the report We have already started Production Simulation Model for Seabass and Seabream? At least 50 % of the farming companies must wish to participate, the goal should be 90 % All reporting have to be voluntary, Do not deal too much with the skeptics! You can`t force a company to report! Cost/benefit Why should it be done for seabass/seabream? Help building markets, improved information about biomass and future supplies better market planning for importers and retailers Confidence in the industry, not boom and bust Easier access to capital Better strategic planning Economic sustainability = Improved margins for the producers Key success factors Tight cooperation with the main producers in the main producing countries We have to learn the production cycle and quantify key productivity factors Tight cooperation with feed producers and vaccine producers Focus: Cost/benefit What`s the cost/who will pay? Depends on the organization of the data collection system to be established Step by step start up? Combination with benchmark systems, production benchmark or benchmark farm-gate prices? Important: Companies have to get something useful as soon as possible How should biomass information and harvest forecasts be published? Monthly report to subscribers? Industry conferences/meetings? Workshops for a limited group? Important: Information must be available for everybody (who pay, not copy) Ready to start? I`m eager to listen to the discussions now! Thank you very much!
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