E M I S S I O N S R E D U C T I O N P R O F I L E Belize UNEP RISØ JUNE 2013 SUPPORTED BY ACP-MEA & UNFCCC Acknowledgements The country emission profiles have been long underway. Keeping it on track would

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E M I S S I O N S R E D U C T I O N P R O F I L E Belize UNEP RISØ JUNE 2013 SUPPORTED BY ACP-MEA & UNFCCC Acknowledgements The country emission profiles have been long underway. Keeping it on track would not have been possible without the initiation, the continuous support and the encouragement of Miriam Hinostroza, head of the Low Carbon Development team at UNEP Risø and the financing and continuous support from the EU ACP MEA programme and UNFCCC Secretariat, in particular Fatima-Zahra Taibi and Miguel Alejandro Naranjo Gonzalez, who have provided essential guidance and revisions. We also wish to thank the Designated National Authorities of the countries for which the emissions reduction potentials have been assessed. The countries have commented on the reports in two iterations and valuable comments have been incorporated in the texts. The profiles have benefited from shifting, but dedicated teams of research assistance. We wish to acknowledge the significant contributions from Maija Bertule, Jacob Ipsen Hansen, Maryna Karavai, Sunniva Sandbukt, Frederik Staun and Emilie Wieben, as well as Søren E. Lütken, senior adviser and contributing editor of the profiles and the summary report. 2 Contents Economy, Growth and Emissions... 5 Status of CDM Development and Capacity Building in Belize... 7 Overview of CDM Opportunities in Belize... 8 Agriculture and Forests... 8 Forest Carbon Options... 8 Forestry Industry Biodiesel Ethanol Waste Bagasse Energy Generation Animal Waste Industrial Biogas Wastewater Landfill Gas Conventional Power Production Renewable Energy Hydropower Solar Wind Power Energy Consumption Industrial Production Processes Transportation Summary Brief Profile Full name: Belize Population: 312,900 (UN, 2010) Capital: Belmopan Area: 22,965 sq km (8,867 sq miles) GDP: $1.35 Billion US dollars(wb, 2009) Major languages: English (official), Spanish, Mayan, Garifuna (Carib), Creole Major religion: Life expectancy: Monetary unit: Main exports Christianity 75 years (men), 79 years (women) (UN) 1 Belizean dollar = 100 cents Sugar, bananas, citrus fruits, oil, clothing, fish products, molasses, wood Figure 1. Map of Belize Economy, Growth and Emissions Belize is a country situated on the Caribbean coast of Central America. The country achieved full independence from Great Britain on 21 September Belize has established relations and diplomatic ties with many other countries, individually or through supranational and international organizations. It is a member of the United Nations, the Nonaligned Movement, the World Trade Organization, the Organization of American States and the Association of Caribbean States and the Caribbean Community (CARICOM), and other related institutions. Despite the yearly population growth rate of 3.3%, Belize still has the lowest population density in Central America -- approximately 2.3 persons/km 2. The country has vast uninhabited areas with pristine nature. The world s second largest barrier reef is in Belize s waters, attracting a large number of tourists each year, and contributing to the country s economy while providing marine products that are important for the country s export. Recently, oil reserves have been discovered in Belize, but extraction still occurs in limited amounts. Belize has a small, essentially private enterprise economy that is based primarily on agriculture, agro-based industry, and merchandising, with tourism and construction recently assuming greater importance. In 2006, the exploitation of a newly discovered crude oil field near the town of Spanish Lookout has presented new prospects and problems for this developing nation. It has yet to be seen if significant economic expansion will be made by this. To date, oil production equal 3,000 bbl/d (480 m 3 /d) (2007 est.) and oil exports equal 1,960 bbl/d (312 m 3 /d) (2006 est.). The country is a producer of industrial minerals. Sugar accounts for nearly half of exports, while the banana industry is the country's largest employer. Belize imports one and a half times more goods than it exports. In 2006, goods valued at 660 million USD were imported, while 427 million USD were exported. The top imports were machine and transportation equipment (17%), fuels and lubricants (16%), manufactured goods (12%), and food (9%). 2 The new government faces important challenges to economic stability. Rapid action to improve tax collection has been promised, but a lack of progress in reining in spending could bring the exchange rate under pressure. The tourism and construction sectors strengthened in early 2009, leading to a preliminary estimate of revived growth at 4%. Infrastructure continues to be a major challenge for the economic development of Belize. Furthermore, Belize has the most expensive electricity in the region. Trade is important, and the major trading partners are the United States, Mexico, the European Union, and Central America. The largest integrated electric utility and principal distributor in Belize is BEL. The Government of Belize nationalized BEL in 2011, with the GOB owning 26.9%, Social Security Board owning 70.2%, and the remaining shares, just over 1%, to 500 small shareholders. Belize utilizes two main energy sources: oil derivates and biomass. Oil derivates are imported, as the country does not have refinery plants. Fuel dependency is a big challenge for Belize, accounting for approximately 66% of the country s energy supply, mostly applied in the transport sector. Diesel generators still provide approximately 4% of the total electricity 2 Second National Communication, p EMISSIONS REDUCTION PROFILE Belize consumption. 3 Biomass is used as fuelwood for cooking; in the Belizean remote rural communities, biomass as fuelwood is still an important energy source, accounting for 13.9% of the cooking fuel in the country. 4 The most utilized source for renewable electricity generation, apart from hydropower, is the combustion of bagasse, a waste from the sugarcane production. Other renewable electricity generation technologies are used in small-scale, mostly isolated, applications and power plants in Belize. The amount of electricity needed in the country has risen by 65% in the last decade, with a faster rise the first 5 years and a slower rate of electricity need in the last 5 years. The trend also shows that the percentage of power imported from Mexico has been about 50% of the total amount, with a decrease in import the last 2 years. This decrease is due to a higher amount of domestic power production by hydropower and the use of bagasse. Belize s dependency on imported energy sources poses a concern regarding the country s security of energy supply. Measures have been taken to reduce the country s dependence on imported electricity, by enhancing the country s hydropower capacity. Recent hydropower capacity expansion has reached over 50% of the country s peak demand. The Mollejon Hydroelectric Dam has a capacity of 24.9 MW and generates 80 GW to 160 GW per year; the Vaca Dam became operational in January 2010 and has a capacity of 19 MW; the Chalillo Dam became operational in 2005 and has a generating capacity of 7 MW; and lastly, the Hydro Maya which has a rated capacity of 3.5 MW and an available capacity of 0.5 MW. 5 The total available hydropower capacity is 51.4 MW. 6 The country s CO 2 emissions show a growing trend in the available reference years, from 10,319 kt CO 2e in 1994, to 22,979 kt in According to the last reference year, the agricultural sector is the largest emitter of CO 2e, followed by Land Use, Land-Use Change and Forestry (LULUCF), waste, energy, and industry sector Belize Percent change 0 Figure 2. Economic growth since 1990 (GDP percent change) 3 Second National Communication, p Launchpad Consulting, 2003, p Becol, Electrowatt-Ekono, 2006, p Second National Communication, p EMISSIONS REDUCTION PROFILE Belize 2 1,5 1 0,5 0 Belize U.S. dollars Billions Figure 3. Economic growth since 1990 (GDP USD billions) Belize U.S. dollars Units Figure 4. Economic growth since 1990 (GDP per capita) Belize 0 Figure 1. CO2 emissions per year in ktco2/year Status of CDM Development and Capacity Building in Belize Belize has established a DNA, and the country approved the Environmental Protection Regulations (Clean Development Mechanism) in Up until the start of 2012, Belize still had no CDM projects, however, CDM capacity building, information, and workshops, aimed at the public administration and the private sector, have proven helpful. There are currently four PINS submitted to the DNA, and two PDDs are in the developmental stage. The project developers for the two PDDs have applied for participation in the CDM loan scheme. 7 Overview of CDM Opportunities in Belize Agriculture and Forests Illegal logging and deforestation for agricultural purposes has been observed taking place in the country -- particularly along the Guatemalan border. Measures to limit the current rate of deforestation, and implementation of reforestation projects through a CDM Programme of Activities might provide financial opportunities, while safeguarding the natural resource base of Belize. Mangrove clearance is another challenge in Belize, especially when the country s risks of flooding and occasional hurricanes are taken into consideration. Mangrove conservation and reforestation projects would certainly provide a sustainable contribution to the country s current trends, while adding to carbon sinks. Estimates show that approximately 14% of the forested area in Belize is suitable for sustainable forest management for timber production. Sustainable timber production could hinder further deforestation, contributing to the sustaining of current carbon sinks in the country, and renewable energy production from sawmill wastes. Forest Carbon Options The forested area in Belize covers 1,366,300 hectares, approximately 62% of the country. Of this, 37% is classified as primary forest, the most biodiverse and carbon-dense form of forest, containing 171 million metric tons of carbon in living forest biomass. From 1989 to 2012 Belize has lost 11.3% of its forested areas, approximately 0.49% per year. 8 This is mainly due to the expansion of agricultural industry, urban, rural and infrastructural expansion, and growth in tourism. Moreover, the timber production doubled between 1999 and The total emissions from The Land Use, Land-Use Change and Forestry (LULUCF) sector accounted for 7,483, 9,803 and 11,950 Kt of GHG emissions for the reference years 1994, 1997 and Moreover, this is the sector responsible for the largest emissions for 1994 and The LULUCF sector also shows a fast growing trend in emissions, compared to the other sectors (with the exception of agriculture), likely due to the growth in rural population and the need for agricultural land. The key sources of GHG in the LULUCF sector were forest and grassland conversion, accounting for 12,077 Kt CO 2e in 2000, which, combined, are also the largest emissions sources in the country. One different feature about this sector is that as deforestation is a source of GHG emissions, reforestation and the growth of biomass serve as removers of CO 2 from the atmosphere. The amount of CO 2 removals from this sector was 2,891, 3,225 and 3,862 Kt CO 2e in 1994, 1997 and 2000, respectively. Using the amount of removed CO 2 from the growth of biomass, a net amount of GHG emissions in CO 2e can be calculated to be 5,117, 7,253 and 9,088 Kt CO 2e for 1994, 1997 and MNREI, 2002: Sabido, Forest carbon activities hold significant potential for Belize, and efforts related to avoided deforestation and sustainable forest management present opportunities under the scope of REDD+. In an expression of interest to join the Forest Carbon Partnership Facility, the Ministry responsible for the climate change portfolio stated that future REDD+ activities will be governed by a Technical Expert Group (TEG) on Forests and Climate, who will report to the Belize National Climate Change Committee, chaired by the CEO of the Ministry. However, significant amounts of funding will be required, especially for putting a strong monitoring in place, reporting and verification (MRV) system, and strengthening the technical capacity. Furthermore, it is crucial that policies addressing drivers of deforestation are clearly defined. Afforestation and reforestation of degraded forest lands and mangrove habitats are possible under the Clean Development Mechanism. However, despite the potential to mitigate climate change through forest regeneration, A/R CDM activities have remained underdeveloped, compared to other CDM sectors. This mainly related to the complexity of the A/R CDM procedure and the limited market demand for A/R CDM credits, since CERs from these projects are not eligible in the European Emission Trading System. Furthermore, in order to address issues related to non-permanence, only tcers are issued to A/R CDM projects. Nonetheless, there are some forestry related opportunities that could be worth looking into. Biomass is the second main energy source in Belize, emitting Kt of CO 2 in The two sources of biomass are fuelwood for domestic use, and bagasse. Fuelwood is used for cooking by approximately 16% of the households in Belize 11. A possible CDM approach to the use of fuelwood is the distribution of efficient cook stoves (up to 35% efficiency increase), to limit the amount of fuelwood needed, generating CERs while limiting the rate of deforestation. Calculating the potential emission reductions from REDD+ activities in Belize demonstrates that there is mitigation potential if deforestation is avoided completely. Assuming that the baseline is entirely based on historical emissions, avoided emissions are calculated by multiplying the annual deforestation in Belize, estimated to be 9,650 ha per year, with 36 tc/ha, which is the approximate amount of tons of carbon stored per ha in the country s forests annually. 12 Based on this data, and the conversion factor of 1 ton of biomass carbon to the equivalent of 3.67 tco 2 13, avoiding deforestation, alone, in Belize has the potential to contribute to more than 1 million tons in CO 2 emission reductions every year. Reversing the trend, and adding forest regeneration to these estimates would increase this number even more. Afforestation/reforestation initiatives aiming to replant 50% of the loss in forest cover during (249,727 ha), would require the regeneration of 124,863.5 ha of forest land, which could generate about 16 million tco 2e reductions every year Emission Reduction Potential per year (tco2e) Baseline Methodologies REDD+ / Avoided deforestation 1,274,958 Historical baseline Afforestation/ Reforestation 16,496,965 AR-AM1, AR-AM3, AR-AM4, AR-AM5, AR-AM9, AR-AM10, AR-AMS1, AR- ACM1, AR-ACM2 11 National GHG Inventory, ftp://ftp.fao.org/docrep/fao/011/i0350e/i0350e04c.pdf 13 9 Forestry Industry Given the existing deforestation problem, using forest resources for biomass-based energy production is questionable, but there is a possibility to utilize wood waste from logging practices. The company River Works has proposed a project regarding the harvest of logs stored underwater in the Macal River. The logs are to be used for the production of planks and beams. The CDM related activity could consist of the utilization of the sawmill waste to produce energy. Additionally, it is expected that this activity will result in a reduction of methane emissions, since the logs would otherwise have remained in anaerobic conditions, contributing to methane emissions. Biodiesel As shown by the GHG inventory, while the agricultural sector is responsible for a relatively low amount of GHG by Kt, it is nevertheless responsible for the largest part of CO 2e. The agricultural sector could prove to be a good source for CDM projects through the cultivation of energy crops. The jatropha curcas plant, also referred to as physic nut or piñon, is a native Central American shrub, which has shown great potential as a source of biodiesel. The seeds contain 27-40% oil that can easily be used as biodiesel. The plant is stress and drought resistant, grows on degraded soils that are not suitable for agriculture, and is not edible. Therefore, it is not in competition with food production, and will not affect food prices like other biofuel crops such as sugarcane or corn. Seed cake, the solid biomass residue after oil extraction, can further be used to produce biogas, or directly as green fertilizer. Jatropha curcas could be used in a crop rotation scheme, adding nutrients to the soil, limiting the need for deforestation and burning of forest to access nutrient rich soil, while producing oil for biodiesel 14. In the context of CDM, biodiesel must be used in a captive fleet, i.e. a (large) number of identifiable vehicles like city busses or the trucks of specific companies, to allow the generation of Certified Emission Reductions. Alternatively, biodiesel may be used in existing diesel power plants. Given that the 2010 electricity production of 4,461 MWh generated from crude oil, and 7,608 MWh generated from diesel generators, the approximate amount of CERs obtainable by using biodiesel in the existing generators would be approximately 6,400 using the IPCC values for CO 2 content in diesel and crude oil and applying a (relatively high) efficiency of the engines of 50%. Emission Reduction Potential per year (tco2e) Baseline Methodologies Biodiesel 6,400 ACM0017, AMS-III.AK., AM Achten, W. M., Mathijs, E., Verchot, L., Singh, V. P., Aerts, R. and Muys, B. (2007), Jatropha biodiesel fueling sustainability? Biofuels, Bioprod. Bioref., 1: doi: /bbb Ethanol Bioethanol production could prove to be a future solution to the country s dependency on imported fuels. Belize already has a significant sugarcane production, with Belize Sugar Industry processing approximately 275 tons of sugarcane per hour. By expanding the sugarcane production, the country could create a stimulus for the agricultural sector, and initiate a bioethanol industry. This could limit GHG emissions and fuel imports. Sugarcane-based ethanol can be mixed up to 5-10%, and fuel gasoline vehicles with no, or very little, engine modification. Fossil fuel is regularly needed for the production processes, but bioethanol, as fuel, emits 90% less CO 2 and less air pollutants compared to gasoline. Therefore, the possibilities of producing bioethanol should be considered. In Brazil, where the use of sugarcane to produce bioethanol is extensive, the cost of bioethanol is USD per litre of gasoline equivalent, which is competitive with gasoline. The prices in other regions tend to be higher, although there is potential for cost reduction. 15 The citrus industry produced 139,083 metric tons of solid waste in This number appears to be relatively constant, coming down to 131,762 metric tons in The solid waste consists of orange and grapefruit peal. The citrus industry also produces vast amounts of liquid waste. Run-off from decomposing peels and the liquid waste results in methane emissions, and a high level of biological oxygen demand. When the run-off enters water bodies, it can lower the dissolved oxygen in the water, choking biological organisms and causing eutrophication. Citrus Products of Belize Ltd. is treating their waste through two systems: the liquid waste is being treated by passing through a system of effluent ponds, while the solid waste, peels, pulp and seeds are being used for compost production. The compost is given to farmers to be used as fertilizer, free of charge. This treatment system limits the waste s environmental impact, but there are other alternatives that could exploit the waste resource more extensively. Studies show that there are two alternatives for the utilization of the waste from the citrus industry that could provide reduction of GHG emissions, energy generation, and a better waste management, while providi
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