E M I S S I O N S R E D U C T I O N P R O F I L E Myanmar UNEP RISØ JUNE 2013 SUPPORTED BY ACP-MEA & UNFCCC Acknowledgements The country emission profiles have been long underway. Keeping it on track would

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E M I S S I O N S R E D U C T I O N P R O F I L E Myanmar UNEP RISØ JUNE 2013 SUPPORTED BY ACP-MEA & UNFCCC Acknowledgements The country emission profiles have been long underway. Keeping it on track would not have been possible without the initiation, the continuous support and the encouragement of Miriam Hinostroza, head of the Low Carbon Development team at UNEP Risø and the financing and continuous support from the EU ACP MEA programme and UNFCCC Secretariat, in particular Fatima-Zahra Taibi and Miguel Alejandro Naranjo Gonzalez, who have provided essential guidance and revisions. We also wish to thank the Designated National Authorities of the countries for which the emissions reduction potentials have been assessed. The countries have commented on the reports in two iterations and valuable comments have been incorporated in the texts. The profiles have benefited from shifting, but dedicated teams of research assistance. We wish to acknowledge the significant contributions from Maija Bertule, Jacob Ipsen Hansen, Maryna Karavai, Sunniva Sandbukt, Frederik Staun and Emilie Wieben, as well as Søren E. Lütken, senior adviser and contributing editor of the profiles and the summary report. 2 Contents Economy, Growth and Emissions... 5 Status of CDM Development and Capacity Building in Myanmar... 6 Overview of CDM Opportunities in Myanmar... 7 Agriculture and Forests... 7 Forest Carbon Options... 7 Fuelwood... 8 Firewood... 8 Charcoal... 9 Waste... 9 Agricultural Waste Bagasse and Rice Husk Energy Generation Biomass Energy Generation Animal Waste Wastewater Landfill Gas Conventional Power Production Renewable Energy Hydro Solar Wind Geothermal Biomass Power Energy Consumption Lighting Efficient Cook Stoves Industrial Production Processes Transportation Summary Brief Profile Full name: Republic of the Union of Myanmar (previously Union of Myanmar; Union of Burma) Population: 50 million 1 Capital: Nay Pyi Taw Area: 676,552 sq km (261,218 sq miles) Major languages: Burmese, indigenous ethnic languages Life expectancy: 62 years (men), 67 years (women) (UN) Monetary unit: 1 kyat = 100 pyas Main exports Teak, pulses and beans, prawns, fish, rice, opiates, oil and gas Figure 1. Map of Myanmar Economy, Growth and Emissions Burma, officially the Union of Myanmar, is the second largest country by geographical area in Southeast Asia. Burma's diverse population has played a major role in defining its politics, history, and demographics in modern times. The military has dominated government since General Ne Win led a coup in 1962 that toppled the civilian government of U Nu. Burma remains under the tight control of the military-led State Peace and Development Council. Burma is a resource-rich country. During World War II, the British destroyed the major oil wells, and mines for tungsten, tin, lead and silver to keep them from the Japanese. Under British administration, Burma was the second wealthiest country in Southeast Asia. It was the world's largest exporter of rice, and also had a wealth of natural and labour resources. It produced 75% of the world's teak, and had a highly literate population. However, since the reformations of 1962, the Burmese economy has become one of the least developed in the world -- suffering from decades of stagnation, mismanagement and isolation. Now, the lack of an educated workforce contributes to the growing problems of the economy. Burma lacks adequate infrastructure. Energy shortages are common throughout the country, including in Yangon. Railways are old and rudimentary, with few repairs since their construction in the late 19th century. Highways are typically unpaved, except in the major cities. Burma s GDP stands at $ billion and now grows at an average rate of 2.9% annually. The EU, United States and Canada, among others, have imposed economic sanctions on Burma. Burma is among the least emitting countries in the world, with 0.3 tco 2 e per capita per year, and total annual GHG emissions of 12 million tco 2 -- excluding any methane emissions from agriculture, which has not been estimated (World Bank). In the WRI assessment, however, Myanmar has been attributed annual GHG emissions of 265 million tco 2 e/year 2, including all greenhouse gasses. This indicated significant emissions from agriculture. The growth in economy and emissions can be seen in the graphs below. 15,00% 10,00% 5,00% 0,00% Figure 2: Economic growth since 1990 (GDP percent change) Figure 3: GPD current prices (Billions USD) 2 Climate Analysis Indicators Tool (CAIT) Version 9.0. (Washington, DC: World Resources Institute, 2011) World Resources Institute. 5 Figure 4: GDP per capita, current prices (USD) Figure 5: Total carbon emissions since 1990 Status of CDM Development and Capacity Building in Myanmar Myanmar has established a DNA, which is based at the Ministry of Forestry, Planning & Statistics Department. There is currently a single CDM project from Myanmar in the pipeline. Title Status Type tco2 reduction/year Date of submission Dapein(1) Hydropower Project in Union of Myanmar At Validation Hydro 677, In addition, Myanmar has been included amongst the host countries in four Programmes of Activities. 6 Title Status Type tco2 reduction/year Date of submission International water purification programme At Validation Water purification 12, PoA for the reduction of emissions from non-renewable fuel from cooking at household level At Validation Efficient cook stoves 22, CarbonSoft Open Source PoA, LED Lighting Distribution: Emerging Markets At Validation Lighting 29, Solar LED Lamp Project in Developing Asia At Validation Lighting 7, All of these have yet to include a CPA specific for Myanmar. Overview of CDM Opportunities in Myanmar Agriculture and Forests The population and economy of Burma are greatly dependent on agriculture and forestry. Deforestation in Myanmar corresponds to approximately 116 million ton of CO 2 per year, and the country has one of the highest rates of forest loss on earth 3. Deforestation and forest degradation in Myanmar is primarily attributed to agriculture, logging and fuelwood collection, and to a lesser extent, development for energy infrastructure. Forest Carbon Options According to recent FAO estimates, Myanmar s forests cover an area of 32,082,600 ha, which translates into approximately 49% of the country s total surface land area. 4 Estimates of deforestation and change in forest cover show that between , Myanmar lost an average of 372,250 ha or 0.95% per year. In total, this amounted to approximately 19% of the country s forest cover (7,445,000 ha). About 10% of Myanmar s forests are classified as primary forest, the most biodiverse and carbon-dense type, while 87% consist of naturally regenerated forest and the remaining 3% are planted forest. 5 Afforestation and reforestation of degraded forest lands, and mangrove restoration, present a potential for climate change mitigation in Myanmar, while generating financial flows from forest carbon activities under the CDM. However, A/R CDM activities have generally remained underdeveloped, compared to other CDM sectors, mainly as a result of the complexity of the A/R CDM procedure, and the limited market demand for A/R CDM credits. Moreover, CERs from these projects are not eligible in the European Emission Trading System, and only tcers are issued to A/R CDM projects. While there are currently no A/R CDM activities in Myanmar, the country has potential for generating additional income from forest carbon activities under the CDM. 3 (forest cover divided by carbon stock) REDD+ also presents an opportunity for creating financial flows for Myanmar s efforts to mitigate GHG emissions, through forest carbon activities. However, in order for the country to prepare and become ready for REDD+, Myanmar will have to clearly define rules on land tenure and carbon rights, and set up institutions for REDD+ governance. Altogether, for REDD+ to become successful, the outcome will have to secure clear, tangible benefits, and access to land for forest dwellers and local communities, while conserving Myanmar s forests and biodiversity. Calculating the potential emission reductions from REDD+ activities in Myanmar demonstrates that there is mitigation potential if deforestation is avoided completely. Assuming that the baseline is entirely based on historical emissions, avoided emissions are calculated by multiplying the annual deforestation in Myanmar, estimated to be 372,250 ha per year, with 98 tc/ha, which is the approximate amount of tons of carbon stored per ha in the country s forests annually. 6 Based on this data, and the conversion of 1 ton of biomass carbon to the equivalent of 3.67 tco 2 7, avoiding deforestation, alone, in Myanmar has the potential to contribute to approximately 133 million tons in CO 2 emission reductions every year. Reversing the trend and adding reforestation to these estimates would increase this number even more. Afforestation/reforestation initiatives aiming to replant 50% of the loss in forest cover during (-2,332,000 ha), would require the regeneration of 1,166,000 ha of forest land, which could generate more than 400 million tco 2e reductions annually. REDD+ / Avoided deforestation 133,883,430 Historical baseline Afforestation/ Reforestation 419,363,560 AR-AM1, AR-AM3, AR-AM4, AR-AM5, AR-AM9, AR-AM10, AR-AMS1, AR- ACM1, AR-ACM2 Fuelwood Fuelwood remains the most important source of energy for cooking, due to inadequate electric power supply and limited provision of household fuel gas. Moreover, while the per capita consumption of fuelwood has been slightly decreasing, the absolute consumption of the country has been steadily increasing. 8 Firewood Biomass consumption (wood-energy and agricultural residues) remains the main source of domestic energy in rural households. Reducing the demand for firewood is, therefore, a strategy to reduce drivers of deforestation and an exhaustion of Myanmar s forests. Such strategies include improved fuel-efficient cook stoves, and alternative fuels and techniques for cooking and baking, which altogether might have a significant impact on GHG emissions. 6 ftp://ftp.fao.org/docrep/fao/011/i0350e/i0350e04c.pdf Charcoal Charcoal constitutes the second most important fuel after firewood, and is a source of income as well as environmental degradation in rural areas. Charcoal production releases methane especially in the traditional open pits process. There are three phases in the carbonization process: 1) ignition, 2) carbonization, and 3) cooling. CDM projects are implemented in two different processes: 1) improving the kiln design for better temperature control and greater control of carbonization variables, which reduce methane emissions, and 2) capturing the methane released from the charcoaling plant, and combusting it to generate electricity (e.g. in a gas engine). Since charcoal production involves tree removal from forests, sustainable wood supply is an important concern. Therefore, any introduction of efficient charcoal production technologies should only be approved if facilities have allocated dedicated woodlots for sustainable fuelwood plantations. If charcoal is sustainably produced through plantations, and methane emissions are eliminated, charcoal production becomes carbon neutral, since all emitted carbon would subsequently be sequestered in replanted trees. The annual charcoal production in Myanmar for 2011 was estimated to be 164,634 t. 9 According to a recently registered CDM project, using renewable charcoal from forest plantations, shifting from traditional open kilns to efficient kilns employing methodology AM , the anticipated methane emissions reduction per ton of produced charcoal is tons 11. This corresponds to tons of carbon emissions reduced per ton of produced charcoal, based on the global warming factor of 21. Assuming that project emissions are zero, and that fuelwood is supplied from sustainable plantations, transforming the country s entire charcoal production from a 100% open kiln production in the baseline would potentially result in an emissions reduction of 127,920 tco 2e/year. Such a project might be viable, but significant uncertainties are associated with this calculation, if not on the actual emissions reduction potential and project emissions, then on the current production methods and the outlook for including the entire charcoal production under one CDM activity. Type of Technology Charcoal production 127,920 AMS-I.C., AMS-III.K., ACM00021, AM0041 Waste Waste management has a great GHG emissions reduction potential. The potential for reductions lies in two different areas of waste handling: proper disposal of organic matter that would otherwise emit methane (CH 4), and waste incineration, that can serve to replace energy (both thermal and electric) that would have been produced from fossil fuels. 9http://siteresources.worldbank.org/INTCARFINASS/Resources/MainReportLowCarbonEnergyprojectsforDevelopmentofSubSaharanAfrica pdf 10http://cdm.unfccc.int/filestorage/A/P/Q/APQY8M2DU796JH10G3SKEW5ZR4TBXN/ _PDD_Charcole.pdf?t=V298bTZrcmtxfDCc85eDOxwk3EIdOherlYZR 11 9 Organic matter, for instance in the form of waste, emits large quantities of greenhouse gasses, primarily methane (CH 4), if not disposed of properly. The potential for the reduction of these emissions lies in various sectors. Waste in the domestic sector, e.g. from small household livestock units, as well as in the industrial sector and municipalities, is most often left unutilized, to decay, or rarely used for the purposes of fertilizer or burning in open pits. The waste is, therefore, both harmful to the surrounding environment, and often a health hazard. Consequently, a waste management project will be greatly beneficial to local sustainable development. Waste management projects can be implemented in various sectors in Myanmar. The challenge of mitigating GHG emissions from waste lies in the lack of existing incentives, as the proper handling of waste does not present an opportunity to generate revenue for the stakeholders. Agricultural Waste Agricultural production leaves considerable amounts of agricultural waste, in the form of biomass and animal waste in particular. Some of it is recycled into the agricultural production as fertilizer, while large amounts remain unutilized and in many instances pose a disposal problem. Uncontrolled burning in the fields is not only a hazardous disposal solution, it is also a waste of a potential energy source. With efficient collection systems in place, waste from agricultural production can be utilized as fuel for power and heat production. In the sugar industry, significant amounts of bagasse the waste after extraction of sugar is an excellent fuel. Rice production may also be industrialized, to the extent that rice husks are available in amounts sufficient for incineration in a boiler, thereby securing a basis for power and heat production. In the forest industry, large concentrations of biomass waste can be utilized for power and heat production, e.g. at sawmills. The forest industry also supplies raw material for briquettes production, where sawdust, charcoal dust, degradable waste paper and dust from agricultural production may constitute a final utilization of waste materials from agriculture related production. Biomass energy projects can be built in a wide range of sizes and for broad applications. Such projects are also cost-efficient solutions for waste generated by the sugar industry. They can be as large as 100 MW power stations generating both electricity and heat, but are typically MW in size. Biomass energy projects are also technically feasible in much smaller sizes, but are rarely commercially viable below 8-10 MW, depending on availability and pricing of biomass residues. Bagasse and Rice Husk Energy Generation In 2009 there was an abundance of agricultural waste in Myanmar, mainly from rice and sugarcane production, which is the most common source for biomass waste to energy projects. The total amount of sugarcane bagasse in 2009 was 1.35 million tons 12. Assuming that 25% was already used for energy or other purposes, there would be about 1 million tons left. If 20% of this resource could be gathered for a single power plant (approximately 100 MW), and the electricity would be displacing grid electricity, the potential emissions reduction would be 900,000 MWh * tco 2e/MWh = 236,000 tco 2e/year. 12 Myanmar to Use Agricultural Waste and Biogas to Prevent the Destruction of Forests , Asia Biomass Office Bagasse power 236,000 AM36, ACM6, ACM2, AMS-I.D., AMS- I.C. Biomass Energy Generation In Myanmar there is a significant production of rice and, therefore, also the residue rice husks. It is already common practise to utilize the rice husks for energy purposes in the country 13, but there is still a significant surplus from the rice production every year. If it is assumed that 25% of all the rice husks are already utilized for energy, the remaining 75% are still available for energy production. Furthermore, assuming that 20% of this resource was available for collection and in turn made available for a single biomass power plant (approximately 100 MW), the potential emissions reduction would be 800,000 MWh * tco 2e/MWh = 210,000 tco 2e/year. Rice husk energy 210,000 AM36, ACM6, ACM3, ACM2, ACM18, AMS-III.E., AMS-I.D., AMS-I.C. Animal Waste Manure from livestock can also be utilized for energy purposes. This is a suitable solution particularly for rural areas where the population often does not have access to modern energy sources, and mainly relies on agricultural activities. With regard to this kind of energy technology, there have been some past experiences to build on in Myanmar, as 105 biogas digesters were installed in 2005 and contributed to a capacity of 945 kw 14. In 2007 an Indian company installed a biomass power plant, supplying 200 rural households with energy. It is estimated that there are about 103 million head of livestock in Myanmar. Of these, cows are an important fraction, particularly in Mandalay, Sagaing, and Magway divisions 15. In urban areas, electricity or kerosene is most often used as fuel for cooking, whereas firewood still remains, by far, the most common source of energy for cooking in rural areas. If a project similar to the one implemented by the Indian company was scaled-up to cover 20,000 households, and the baseline scenario used was 0.5 litres of kerosene per day, the potential emissions reduction would then be 20,000 households * 365 days * 0.5 litres/day * 2.58 kgco 2/litre = 9,400 tco 2e/year. Domestic biogas 9,400 ACM6., AMS-I.C., AMS-I.D., AMS-III.E., AM36 13 knowledgebank.irri.org 14 Myanmar to Use Agricultural Waste and Biogas to Prevent the Destruction of Forests , Asia Biomass Office Myanmar: Country Assessment on Biofuels and Renewable Energy , Ministry of Agriculture and Irrigation, Wastewater Municipal wastewater can also be a source of energy if a biogas collection system is installed at the sewage treatment plant. The treatment plant in Yangon (Yangon City Development Committee Wastewater Treatment Plant) has been operating since 2005 and serves approximately 325,000 people in six townships, downtown Yangon. The installation of a gas-collecting system at this plant could have a potential emissions reduction effect, if the gas was utilized in a gas engine, and the electricity was supplied to the grid. Using the same flow/power ratio from a registered Chinese CDM project, the emissions reduction would then be 53,000 MWh/year 16 * tco 2e/year = 14,000 tco 2/year. Wastewater 14,000 M36, ACM6, ACM2, AMS-I.C., AM36, ACM6, ACM2, AMS-I.D., AMS-I.C., ACM6, ACM2, AMS-I.D. and AMS-I.C. Landfill Gas The municipal solid waste management systems in Myanmar are functioning well in the two largest cities: Yangon and Mandalay. By 2004, the daily solid waste collected in Yangon was 1,150 tons. If a landfi
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